The Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin released on Tuesday. An article on the 'State of the Economy' in the December bulletin noted that the global economy continues to exhibit resilience with steady growth and moderating inflation.
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
The Reserve Bank's annual monetary policy will moderate inflation without hurting growth, while providing relief to small housing loan borrowers, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate during 2024 given the uncertainty over food inflation, State Bank of India (SBI) chairman C S Setty has said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in interest rates in more than four years is expected soon, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) State of the Economy report for October acknowledged a slowdown in some high-frequency indicators but expressed confidence in a recovery, aided by consumption demand during the festival season. "In India, aggregate demand is poised to shrug off the temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25 as festival demand picks up pace and consumer confidence improves," said the report released on Monday.
Bank lending has seen a significant fall. RBI needs to bring liquidity into the system immediately.
Rajan warned against waiting to act until inflation expectations become entrenched, but also said the Reserve Bank of India would overlook temporary spikes in inflation.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said despite the latest headwinds arising from the Jackson Hole summit leading to extreme volatility, our banking system and financial markets are strong enough to withstand such pressures. Taking the markets by surprise, US Fed chair Jerome Powell had told the annual Jackson Hole summit of central bankers and economists last week that he would have to keep raising federal fund rates to tame inflation, which remains the biggest challenge to the world's largest economy. He also warned of the pains that such monetary policy actions would create on growth and jobs.
Manufacturing activities in India remained robust and price pressures were contained in October as new orders and production rose at a slower but stronger pace, according to a monthly survey released on Tuesday. The seasonally-adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was up from 55.1 in September to 55.3 in October. The October PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 16th straight month.
The Reserve Bank of India's tight monetary policy is expected to moderate India's economic growth rate to 8.1-8.6 per cent in 2008, against 8.5-9 per cent in 2007, Global rating agency Standard and Poor's said on Wednesday.
Policy with regard to the foreign banks is part of his five pillars of reforms, says RBI Governor.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
Donald Trump's tariffs, meant as political punishment, have avoided the predicted chaos, lifting US growth, weakening rivals, and letting him claim victory in a resilient global economy, observes T T Ram Mohan.
The Reserve Bank on Thursday marginally revised upwards the economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, from its earlier estimate of 6.4 per cent. Unveiling the first bi-monthly monetary policy of 2023-24 fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023-24 is expected at 7.8 per cent.
According to report by Dun and Bradstreet, central bank expected to maintain status quo on policy rate.
The domestic stock market may face volatility amid the monthly derivatives expiry scheduled this week, while investors would mainly await the outcome of RBI's interest rate decision on Friday, said analysts. Global market movement would also continue to drive sentiment amid a bearish trend recently following rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take cues from its global counterparts to raise interest rate for the fourth time in a row to control inflation.
Welcoming the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy, the industry chambers on Tuesday said the central bank's 6.5-7 per cent growth projection for this year was in line with their expectations.
The MPC headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the resolution of the meeting at around noon on Thursday.
There are respected names arguing both for and against this recommendation of the Urjit Patel committee.
Investors were focussed on the RBI's monetary policy review on Tuesday which will give an insight into its inflation and rates outlook.
While liquidity in the banking system has turned surplus in the last few weeks, it could go back to deficit again, mainly due to corporate advance tax outflows. The net liquidity surplus of the banking system rose to touch Rs 1 trillion on Tuesday on the back of government spending, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India.
India will drive growth in the Asia-Pacific (Apac) region as the growth engine is likely to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia in the coming years, S&P Global Ratings said in a report on Tuesday. The rating agency's report projected China's growth to slow down to 4.6 per cent by 2026 from an estimated 5.4 per cent in 2023. India is likely to clock 7 per cent economic growth from 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
Reserve Bank is scheduled to announce its bi-monthly monetary policy on August 3.
The disbursement of the second tranche comes on a day when the International Monetary Fund is holding virtual discussions on Pakistan's upcoming budget, as the visit of its mission to Islamabad was delayed due to security concerns in the region.
Is unhappy about banks' reluctance to pass on lower interest rates.
'Investment creates capacity and reduces inflation. Income, employment, and savings rise.'
It is time for India to raise its voice not just through military prowess, but through professionalism, principled voting and partnerships, asserts Deepak Mishra.
Recent slide in inflation no consolation amid exceptional shrinkage in industrial growth.
The Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to change the policy rates the repo and reverse repo rates in its mid-term review of the monetary policy amid persistent inflationary expectations following copious foreign capital inflows. Headline inflation has dropped significantly below RBI's target of 5 per cent for 2007-08 but this is a result of the government deciding not to pass on the increase in oil prices to consumers.
Moody's on Friday slashed India's GDP growth projections for 2022 to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent earlier as the global slowdown and rising domestic interest rates will dampen economic momentum. This is the second time that Moody's Investors Service has cut India's growth estimates. In September, it had cut projections for the current year to 7.7 per cent from 8.8 per cent estimated in May. "For India, the 2022 real GDP growth projections have been lowered to 7 per cent from 7.7 per cent.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
Puri said Pakistan was a country in "terminal decline" periodically using terrorism as an instrument of state policy.
The former RBI deputy governor talked about the prospects of an economic revival, reforms in IMF, etc.
The halt in the RBI's monetary tightening drive comes after 13 hikes since March, 2010.
Of the 15 participants, 7 expect CRR cut, only one sees repo rate reduction.
Hikes benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent Cuts growth projection for this fiscal to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent estimated in September Inflation to come down below 6 per cent in March quarter, to average 6.7 per cent this fiscal
'The prime minister's comment on 'revdi culture' was welcome. But I am disappointed he did not follow up on that.' 'All political parties, including the BJP, have been guilty of this.' 'Now, Modi's guarantees, the Congress's 'nyay' path and both ruling and Opposition parties are vying with each other for freebies in my home state Andhra Pradesh.'
India needs to be technologically and militarily prepared to defend itself from both Pakistan and China, alerts Ramesh Menon.
